His keynote speech - delivered in the unlikely setting of an agricultural show - was stridently pro-Unionist. Constitutional change was effectively ruled out, except for the Dublin Government who should, "in advance of a settlement", delete Articles 2 and 3 of their Constitution which define Ireland as the whole island. Moreover, said Blair, while there should be cross-border "arrangements", "we would not negotiate them" if they were threatening to Unionists.

In what was trumpeted as a concession and a change in policy, British officials will meet Sinn Fein in advance of an IRA ceasefire, he said. But the same thing happened in 1993. The only difference was that then it was done in secret. Praise be to open government.

The speech was "the smack of firm government" said one commentator and that particularly applied to Sinn Fein. "My message to Sinn Fein is clear. The settlement train is leaving. I want you on that train. But it is leaving anyway and I will not allow it to wait for you," Blair said in a clear echo of John Major... and Margaret Thatcher.

"The settlement train has left several times," said Martin McGuiness in response, "and it has always run into a dead end." Indeed, it is difficult to see how a settlement could be reached without Sinn Fein, particularly now given their gains at the Westminster election. With two MPs and their highest ever share of the vote and with further gains expected in local elections they have never been as strong. Sinn Fein now represents over 40% of the nationalist electorate. In some areas there has been a fierce battle for the hearts and minds of nationalists with those - some within the SDLP - who want to see an all-Ireland settlement gaining ground against those who would be happy to see an internal settlement with minimal Dublin input.

Sinn Fein also points to the multi-party talks to show the futility of excluding them; after a year, the talks have not got beyond wrangling over procedures and agendas.

It is this part of Blair's speech - that he will proceed without Sinn Fein - that shows that British policy has not fundamentally changed under the new Labour Government. It has long been the favoured strategy of the Northern Ireland Office to marginalise the "extremes" and do a deal with the centre ground. But in the Six Counties the centre ground is an earthquake zone or even at times a mythical place - as seen last summer during the events at Drumcree.

The Dublin Government under Albert Reynolds came to see that no solution was possible unless all parties to the conflict were involved. That policy shift bore fruit in the Irish peace process and the 1994 IRA ceasefire. The next step - meaningful inclusive negotiations with no preconditions - floundered on the Unionist-Tory alliance. Talks mean change to the status quo and those whose power has rested on the status quo have twisted and turned to avoid negotiations.

Conflict resolution throughout the world has shown that peace can only come when all parties to the conflict are at the table, yet this is still being resisted in the Six Counties.

Gerry Adams said that Tony Blair's speech writers should "stop recycling the failed rhetoric of the past. Sinn Fein has a democratic mandate and it is reprehensible that the British Government should exclude us while preaching about democracy."

In a message to activists in the Labour Party he said: "There is a long tradition within the British labour movement of supporting the right of the Irish people to self-determination. That must be reasserted in the trade unions, in the Constituency Labour Parties and elsewhere. Labour activists should make it clear that Tory policy on Ireland is not acceptable in the Labour Party."