Good signs for the European left?
Good signs for the European left?
Michael Hindley MEP gives a global perspective
The vicissitudes of proportional representation have given a result in Germany which few expected. The SPD and Greens have 46% of the vote (40% and 6% respectively) but this has actually produced a numerical majority in the lower House under Germany's mixed system of first past the post and regional top-up - the very system which allegedly Lord Jenkins is most in favour of.
It seems there will be a SPD/Green coalition government, though how stable that will be remains to be seen. Oddly enough the result leaves all the parties happy, apart from the right-wing of the SPD whose euphoria at being in power again is tempered by the fact that they wanted a grand coalition in order to restructure Germany's welfare state to be "competitive" in the global economy.
Schröder had championed the "New Middle" (or Third Way in Blairspeak) and a coalition with the CDU minus Kohl would have enabled him to ignore his own party and its strong leftist party leader Oskar Lafontaine. Not only is Schröder stuck with his own party but he is stuck with the Greens who have their own strong left wing committed to preserving a welfare state. The CDU were the big losers with their share of the vote falling to a new low of 35%. Shorn of the responsibility of governing, the CDU can choose a successor to Kohl and steadily push for cuts in social welfare to drive a wedge between Schröder and his own party and allies.
The Greens have been unexpected winners. A few months ago most pundits thought their radical demands for fuel tax rises had placed them beyond the pale, but PR has rescued them: their actual vote went down, but they end up in government. Though I am pleased with the result I cannot but feel disturbed about a voting system which allows a party with 6% to have cabinet seats, but denies any share of power to a party with 35%. So much for fairness.
The other winners were the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) who actually increased their percentage of votes both in the west and among young first time voters. Though their vote remains minuscule in the west, the PDS can no longer simply be passed off as a nostalgia party for the old German Democratic Republic. Certainly it is good to have an elected opposition to the left of the SPD.
The liberal FDP also were returned and now have a rare spell in opposition before them. I personally think this might not last; they have crossed the floor once before to bring down Helmut Schmidt and if Schröder finds he cannot take the Greens with him towards the New Middle, the FDP might prove a tempting alternative support. Finally all will take comfort from the fact that none of the various extreme right-wing parties made it into the Bundestag.
Germany now faces considerable difficulties. There is a superficial complacency shown by the fact that most people wanted a change of face at the top rather than a change of policy despite the fact that Germany is experiencing growing unemployment and a continuing rift between east and west.
The new coalition government is going to cause strain within the SPD itself. Schröder cannot control his party like Blair can - he is not even party leader, though he belongs more to his party and its traditions than Blair ever has. However, the pressure on him to be the Chancellor and act in "the nation's interest" will be played up by the media and the opposition. Coalition government will also bring out the spilt in the Greens between the moderate and pragmatic "realos" and the radical "fundis".
The implications for European politics are good. With mainstream left-of-centre politicians in positions of prominence in Paris and Bonn the resistance to Blair continuing the Thatcherite counterrevolution throughout Europe will grow. Schröder was at pains to direct his first foreign policy statement towards Paris where Jospin desperately needs an ally more in tune with his anti-free market stand. Next year the Germans take on the Presidency of the European Union and with Greens sitting in ministerial positions not only in Bonn but in Brussels the greening of politics looks likely to get beyond the cosmetic stage.
For the European left, the combined vote of 11% left of SPD (Greens 6% and PDS 5%) in Germany on the back of a 16% vote left of the Social Democrats in Sweden (Left Party 12%, Greens 4%) is most encouraging. As Germany shows, PR has its inequities, but it does offer the chance of proper radical political alliances for progressive change, despite the best efforts of the establishment.
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